Cuba’s tourism sector recorded just over 1.8 million international visitors in 2025, a 17.8% decrease from 2024, according to statistics from Cuba’s National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). This figure remained far below the pre-pandemic peak of 4.2 million tourists in 2019 and the government’s target of 3 million visitors for 2025.
The decline in tourism reflects broader structural problems including a prolonged economic crisis, deteriorating energy infrastructure, demographic shifts, and geopolitical tensions, notably the ongoing US embargo which has severely restricted fuel supplies. These challenges have contributed to frequent blackouts and shortages impacting the tourist experience.
International arrivals
dropped further in early 2026, with only 359,491 visitors in the first five months, representing a 58.4% decline compared to the same period in 2025. Key source markets contracted in 2025, with Canadian tourists numbering 754,000 (-12.4%), Russian arrivals at 131,882 (-29%), and US visitors falling to 110,005 (-22.8%). Visits from the Cuban diaspora also decreased by 22.6%.
Declining Hotel Occupancy and Closures
Hotel occupancy rates fell sharply, reaching 18.9% in 2025, down 18% from the previous year. Early 2026 saw occupancy plunge further to 12.9% in the first quarter from 23.7% in Q1 2025. In response to low demand and fuel shortages linked to
the US oil embargo, the Cuban government closed multiple hotels.
International hotel operators have exited the Cuban market, including the Spanish hotel chain Meliá, once a leading investor in local tourism. The closures have reduced accommodation options amid a challenging operational environment caused by limited energy and transport resources.
Dependencies for Recovery
Recovery of Cuba’s tourism depends critically on easing tensions with the United States, undertaking economic reforms, and restoring reliable energy supplies. Lifting the US fuel blockade and relaxing restrictions on US citizen travel are viewed as pivotal steps for boosting arrivals and services.
During President Barack Obama’s second term, US tourist
arrivals increased from 282,552 in 2016 to 638,365 in 2018, making the US the country’s second-largest source of travel. Reestablishing this market could shift Cuba’s tourism focus significantly due to geographic proximity and market potential.
Opportunities and Strategic Shifts
The development of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) offers opportunities for diversifying Cuba’s tourism products. Private restaurants, family accommodations, specialized agencies, and cultural experience operators could complement state offerings and enhance service quality and innovation.
Investment priorities require realignment. Although recent investment concentrated on new hotel construction despite low occupancy, future efforts should focus on renovating aging hotels built over 30 years ago and
improving management efficiency. Meeting this goal will likely require increased foreign investment.
Digital transformation is essential for modernization. Tourists demand efficient reservation systems, electronic payments, stable internet connectivity, and personalized services. Adopting artificial intelligence, data analytics, and digital marketing platforms are necessary for competitiveness.
Tourism Recovery Scenarios
The Cuba Capacity Building Project outlines three tourism recovery scenarios. The pessimistic scenario, marked by persistent energy and geopolitical constraints, projects fewer than one million international visitors annually. The intermediate scenario expects one to three million visitors driven by partial easing of US tensions and incremental domestic reforms.
The optimistic scenario, requiring comprehensive macroeconomic stabilization, energy
system recovery, open foreign investment policies, entrepreneurial growth, upgraded infrastructure, hotel refurbishment, digitalization, and international promotion, could see arrivals exceeding five million tourists. This scenario depends on broad institutional and geopolitical developments rather than guaranteed trends.
Cuba’s future tourism potential hinges on structural reforms that ensure economic sustainability and quality offerings. Addressing energy reliability, opening the US market, and expanding the private sector are central to restoring Cuba’s position in the Caribbean tourism market.
