The Australian government has fixed the National Planning Level (NPL) at 295,000 new international student spaces for academic years 2026 and 2027, maintaining the same cap as the previous year amid decreasing visa applications from overseas students.
Under the NPL system, student visa application processing is streamlined for institutions enrolling up to 80% of their assigned international student spaces. Once an institution exceeds this threshold, visa processing slows to moderate student intake growth and prevent excessive recruitment.
International student commencements have sharply reduced between 2023 and 2025, with 2026 commencements 8% lower than 2025 levels and 13% below those recorded
in 2019. The government projects arrivals in 2027 to remain below the NPL cap of 295,000, consistent with continuing demand declines.
Several factors underlie this trend, including government-imposed increases in student visa fees and rising rejection rates, which have contributed to lower demand and fewer applications. Some Australian education providers report difficulty reaching their allocated student places due to reduced enrollments.
In a joint statement, Education Minister Jason Clare, Assistant Minister for International Education Julian Hill, and Skills Minister Andrew Giles confirmed: “The decision to freeze the NPL at current levels accompanies adjustments to student visa fees.” Luke Sheehy, CEO
of Universities Australia, criticized current policy settings, emphasizing that although a steady target provides planning certainty, existing policies are making it more challenging to meet that target.
Sheehy stated, “If the government keeps making Australia more expensive and more difficult for genuine students to choose, we’re going to fall short – and we’re already seeing that risk emerge.” He warned that without policy changes, the 2027 NPL allocation risks becoming a nominal figure that fails to deliver the desired skills, jobs, and economic growth.
International students face higher visa fees and increased chances of visa rejection, while visa application processing
slows for institutions exceeding their 80% enrolment threshold. These conditions may further reduce incoming student numbers and complicate access to Australian education providers.
Australia’s international education sector supports approximately 250,000 jobs and generates $55 billion in economic value. The government views the current NPL as a managed growth measure to stabilize the sector rather than pursue aggressive expansion.
