The cost of the Alto high-speed rail project connecting Toronto and Quebec City is estimated between $75 billion and $113 billion, according to a Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) report released on October 1, 2026. This figure exceeds earlier official projections ranging from $60 billion to $90 billion.
Tunnels and Elevated Structures Drive Cost Increases
The report identifies tunnels and elevated structures as the primary factors contributing to the higher cost. Each additional kilometre of tunnel construction adds approximately $169 million, while each extra kilometre of elevated infrastructure adds about $153 million to the project’s total cost.
Potential Kingston Stop Adds Cost Uncertainty
Alto, the Crown corporation overseeing the project, is considering adding a
stop in Kingston, Ontario. The PBO notes that incorporating Kingston could increase cost uncertainty due to a combination of easier construction geography and the challenges posed by higher regional population density and ecological sensitivity.
Construction Timeline and Economic Impact
Construction of the rail line is expected to start in 2030. The PBO projects that building the Ottawa-Montreal segment alone could increase real GDP by $1.8 billion in 2029, rising to $2 billion by 2033. Employment related to construction is estimated to grow from around 4,300 jobs to 9,000 jobs during the same period.
International Comparisons and Legislative Context
The PBO’s cost estimates draw upon data from high-speed rail projects in
Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. U.K. and U.S. projects show higher costs mainly due to difficulties in land acquisition, permitting processes, litigation, design changes, and weaker project management. Canada’s recent Bill C-5, known as the One Canadian Economy Act, is designed to streamline approvals and potentially reduce such risks.
The report states, “The robustness of these provisions before Canadian courts, as well as their inherent effectiveness in targeting sources of cost escalation, will be a key success factor in mitigating significant project risks of the baseline estimate.”
Political and Public Responses
Transport Minister Steve MacKinnon supports the Alto project, calling it
a means to “build a strong economy and create new opportunities for Canadians.” In contrast, Conservative transport critic Dan Albas opposes the project, stating it “will come late, go over budget and leave taxpayers stuck with the bill, if it even gets built at all.” Albas also criticized the project for potentially triggering expropriations of farmland and construction delays.
The Bloc Québécois has voiced concerns about expropriations and the consultation process. Residents in eastern Ontario along the proposed route have also expressed opposition to the rail line.
The PBO report concludes the cost range “reflects the considerable uncertainty inherent in
large-scale rail infrastructure projects,” indicating challenges remain in controlling budget overruns and timelines for the Alto high-speed rail initiative.
