The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) published a report on October 1, 2026, estimating the total cost for the Alto high-speed rail project between Toronto and Quebec City to be between $75 billion and $113 billion. This figure surpasses the government’s initial official projections ranging from $60 billion to $90 billion.
Route, Cost Drivers and Economic Impact
The project route covers Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City, with Alto, the responsible Crown corporation, evaluating a possible stop in Kingston, Ontario. The report states that every additional kilometer of tunnel adds about $169 million to construction costs, while each kilometer of elevated structure contributes roughly $153 million. Construction
is expected to start in 2030, with the Ottawa–Montreal segment projected to boost real GDP by $1.8 billion in 2029, rising to $2 billion by 2033. Employment related to this segment would increase from approximately 4,300 to 9,000 jobs over that period.
Causes of Cost Escalations and International Comparisons
The PBO attributed the primary cost increases to complex infrastructure requirements involving tunnels and elevated structures. It referenced higher construction costs in the United Kingdom and the United States linked to challenges in land acquisition, permitting, litigation, design alterations, and project management weaknesses. The report highlighted Canadian legislation such as Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act, which
aims to streamline project approvals and reduce risks related to these factors. Adding the Kingston stop raises cost uncertainties due to a combination of easier construction terrain and higher population density plus ecological sensitivity.
Political Reactions and Official Positions
Transport Minister Steve MacKinnon endorsed the project, stating it will “build a strong economy and create new opportunities for Canadians.” Conversely, Conservative MP Dan Albas criticized the project, claiming it “will come late, go over budget and leave taxpayers stuck with the bill, if it even gets built at all.” Albas added that Canadians require “fast, affordable and reliable transportation, not a Liberal high-speed rail boondoggle
that drives up costs, delays construction and threatens the expropriation of productive farmland across Ontario and Quebec.” The Bloc Québécois has also expressed concerns concerning expropriation and consultation processes.
Project Risks and Legislative Mitigation Measures
The PBO report noted the inherent uncertainties in costing large rail infrastructure, stating, “This range reflects the considerable uncertainty inherent in large-scale rail infrastructure projects.” It emphasized the importance of the strength and effectiveness of recent approval legislation in mitigating cost escalation risks. The robustness of these legal provisions and their performance in Canadian courts will be a key factor in controlling future project costs and risks.
